On February 5th, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a seminar in Beijing on the review of the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2025 and the outlook for the situation in 2026. According to the CPIA "Roadmap for the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry from 2025 to 2026" (referred to as the "Roadmap") released at the meeting, it is expected that the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 500 to 667GW in 2026, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China will be 180 to 240GW. Looking at the longer term, it is expected that during the "15th Five Year Plan" period (i.e. from 2026 to 2030), the global average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 725 to 870GW, and the Chinese average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 238 to 287GW. The trend in both markets is a pullback in 2026, followed by a return to an upward trend.
Photo by Wang Yuqing, reporter from Shanghai Stock Exchange News
In terms of the global market, it is expected to add 500GW of new installed capacity in general by 2026, which is lower than the 580GW scale in 2025; In an optimistic scenario, it is expected to be 667GW. Starting from 2027, it is expected to return to the upward trend, and the global new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 881 to 1044GW by 2030.
In terms of international markets, the European market remains stable; The expected installation capacity in the United States has been lowered due to significant policy uncertainty; India's installed capacity is expected to grow rapidly; In other emerging markets such as the Middle East, North Africa, and sub Saharan Africa, the pace of photovoltaic planning and deployment is accelerating; The G20 summit declaration is favorable for new energy.
Photo by Wang Yuqing, reporter from Shanghai Stock Exchange News
In terms of the Chinese market, the roadmap predicts a general increase of 180GW of photovoltaic installed capacity by 2026, with an optimistic outlook of 240GW, which is a significant decline from 315.07GW in 2025. Starting from 2027, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will gradually increase, and by 2030, it is expected to reach 270 to 320 GW.
Wang Bohua, consultant of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, explained at the meeting that in 2026, due to the recent introduction of policies such as distributed management methods and market-oriented reform of grid electricity prices, there is a wait-and-see attitude in the market, leading to an expected adjustment in new installed capacity. However, as the effects of policies such as the integration of new energy and direct connection of green electricity begin to emerge, it is expected that new installation opportunities will return to the upward trend. But one thing is certain, the growth rate will slow down and the increment will remain stable, "said Wang Bohua.